Katrina and 08

Earlier, I jokingly referred to a Schwartzeneggar 08 campaign. The key word is "jokingly." The necessary amendment simply will not pass in time. He has a much better chance of landing an appointment in the Giuliani administration.

That's right. As of right now, I predict Rudy will win.

#1. Most polls show Rudy G. leading right now. While it is a bit early, no other serious candidate appears primed to move for the GOP. McCain will be too old and despite the love of the media, the blogosphere is so down on him, he might as well remain in the Senate.

Not to mention the track record of Senators running for office.

#2. Bush's appointments to the Supreme Court will be about as much as the GOP can get on Roe v Wade. I don't think abortion is going to matter that much in this debate. Dole was nominated in 96 despite himself. Rudy has some of the same liabilities, but also more strengths.

#3. The GOP can win simply by denying the Democrats New York - something Rudy can probably do.

#4. Reagan was divorced and re-married. A lot of the country has done the same. Rudy's "love life" can be forgiven.

#5. If Rudy is the point man for the Katrina rebuilding effort, that's pretty much automatically a positive for him. He'll get the points for leadership on 9/11 and Katrina.

I might also mention that I see Barbour of MS being the VP candidate. George Allen will be the other major candidate [last rundown - Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Haley Barbour, Bill Frist, George Allen] but I think RG wins the primaries and then essentially walks in the general election - Hillary is simply too much of a liability in middle America.